# Track record

Each day's top picks at $10,000 per side, held 7 days, against the funding that actually settled.

Updated 2026-10-29 16:54 UTC · https://afterfees.xyz/track-record

## Live record (real snapshots, exact order-book net)

|   |   |
|---|---|
| Picks | 10 |
| Settled | 0 |
| Insufficient data | 0 |
| In progress | 10 |
| Hit rate (realized net > 0) | — |
| Median net: predicted / realized | — / — |
| Mean net: predicted / realized | — / — |
| Median error (realized − predicted) | — |
| Mean error (realized − predicted) | — |
| Mean absolute error | — |

_Every day from 00:05 UTC the top 10 pairs on the board with a positive net calculated from the order books (after slippage, at $10,000 per side, held 7 days) on live data are stored — actionable pairs and pairs held back only by size or the slippage budget, each marked — with their predicted net, predicted funding, cost (fees, slippage, carry, borrow) and both legs' sizes. After 7 days, the funding that settled on both legs over that window, minus the same cost, is the realized net. Pairs whose settlement history does not cover the window are marked insufficient data and not counted._

## Backfill: the last 90 days rebuilt from history

|   |   |
|---|---|
| Days | 84 (2026-07-30 – 2026-10-21) |
| Picks | 836 |
| Settled | 836 |
| Hit rate (realized net > 0) | 41.6% |
| Median net: predicted / realized | +$33.34 / −$8.55 |
| Mean net: predicted / realized | +$75.37 / +$1.74 |
| Median error (realized − predicted) | −$39.76 |
| Mean absolute error | $97.46 |

_A historical simulation that uses only what was public each day at 00:05 UTC: each leg’s last settled rate, the pair’s settled 7 days, today’s VIP0 taker fees and a 5 bp slippage budget per leg. Perp ↔ perp pairs on Binance, Bybit, OKX, Gate and Hyperliquid whose two legs each traded at least $2M the day before. Kept apart from the live record. Known biases: no historical order books (slippage is a budget, not measured); a narrower universe than the live board; only contracts that still exist (slight survivorship bias)._

## Backfill and live record together

|   |   |
|---|---|
| Settled | 836 |
| Hit rate (realized net > 0) | 41.6% |
| Median net: predicted / realized | +$33.34 / −$8.55 |
| Median error (realized − predicted) | −$39.76 |

_Each day counted once: backfilled days from the first live day on are left out._

## Every pick

| Date (UTC) | Coin | Long | Short | Predicted net | Realized net | On the board | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | [UNITREE](https://afterfees.xyz/coin/UNITREE) | MEXC UNITREE_USDT | Hyperliquid xyz:UNITREE | +$336.43 | — | Actionable | In progress |
| 2026-10-29 | [UNITREE](https://afterfees.xyz/coin/UNITREE) | Binance UNITREEUSDT | Hyperliquid xyz:UNITREE | +$320.97 | — | Watch | In progress |
| 2026-10-29 | [UNITREE](https://afterfees.xyz/coin/UNITREE) | MEXC UNITREE_USDT | OKX UNITREE-USDT-SWAP | +$73.11 | — | Watch | In progress |
| 2026-10-29 | [UNITREE](https://afterfees.xyz/coin/UNITREE) | Bybit UNITREEUSDT | Hyperliquid xyz:UNITREE | +$162.19 | — | Watch | In progress |
| 2026-10-29 | [UNITREE](https://afterfees.xyz/coin/UNITREE) | Binance UNITREEUSDT | OKX UNITREE-USDT-SWAP | +$108.52 | — | Watch | In progress |
| 2026-10-29 | [UNITREE](https://afterfees.xyz/coin/UNITREE) | MEXC UNITREE_USDT | Bybit UNITREEUSDT | +$111.39 | — | Watch | In progress |
| 2026-10-29 | [UNITREE](https://afterfees.xyz/coin/UNITREE) | Binance UNITREEUSDT | Bybit UNITREEUSDT | +$95.83 | — | Watch | In progress |
| 2026-10-29 | [UNITREE](https://afterfees.xyz/coin/UNITREE) | Bitget UNITREEUSDT | Hyperliquid xyz:UNITREE | +$197.58 | — | Watch | In progress |
| 2026-10-29 | [UNITREE](https://afterfees.xyz/coin/UNITREE) | MEXC UNITREE_USDT | Bitget UNITREEUSDT | +$12.90 | — | Watch | In progress |
| 2026-10-29 | [IRYS](https://afterfees.xyz/coin/IRYS) | KuCoin IRYSUSDTM | BingX IRYS-USDT | +$18.67 | — | Watch | In progress |

_The method behind every number on AfterFees is published; Pro opens each figure into its line-by-line calculation. Estimates from current data, not investment advice. We never hold funds or trade for you._